Flooding risks continue in Central America; heavy snow forecast for Central Asia
Africa Overview
Second season rains have arrived for most bimodal areas of West Africa
Locally heavy rains were observed for a consecutive week for many parts of West Africa. Seasonal rains shifted southward into bimodal regions, though widespread moderate rains lingered across central Mali and western Niger. The heaviest rainfall was focused in southwestern Mali where more than 300mm were observed, according to satellite estimates (Figure 1). As a result of this heavy rain on saturated soils, flood reports are likely to come out of this region. Many other local areas observed more than 100mm of precipitation, even into northern Senegal. Ghana, Togo, and Benin received heavy rains this past week, while more moderate rains were observed in Côte D’Ivoire. Lighter, suppressed rains prevailed in north and eastern Nigeria, where generally less than 25mm accumulated.
Analysis of satellite-estimated percent of normal rainfall shows a well-defined pattern of wet conditions to the north, and dryer-than-normal conditions along the southern coast. Nearly the entire Sahel registers 120% or more of normal rainfall since the start of August (Figure 2). At the same time, areas of southern Cote D’Ivoire and Ghana observed less than 50, or even 25 percent, of their average rainfall. Signs that monsoonal rains are now shifting southward may start to alleviate both concerns of flooding to the north and negative effects for cropping activities stemming from moisture deficits to the south. Vegetation and soil water indices continue to indicate that poor rainfall (in the bottom 10% of years) since July for bimodal areas has led to deterioration of conditions on the ground.
